Gold:  How High Can It Go?

From Captain Ewave – May 25, 2025

US Rates:

Analysis:

The US 10-year Bond Yield has now completed wave i at the 5.021% high and we are now correcting that 5-wave impulsive sequence within wave ii, which has the following retracement levels:

50% = 2.698%;

61.8% = 2.155%.

We are now working on the assumption that wave ii has become a flat-type correction as shown on our Daily 10 Year US Bond Yield Chart.

Within wave ii, we completed wave (a) at 3.785%, and wave (b) at the 4.809% high. We are now falling in initial stages of wave (c) which has projected endpoints of:

(c) = (a) = 3.600%.

(c) = 1.618(a) = 2.850%.

Within wave (c) we have now updated our internal count to suggest that all of wave -i- ended at the 3.886% low and if that is the case then we are now moving higher in wave -ii-, which has the last retracement level of:

78.6% = 4.611%.

Within wave -ii-, wave *a* ended at 4.592%, wave *b* at 4.124% and we are now moving higher in wave *c*, which has now reached our minimum target of 4.592%.

For our current analysis to remain valid we need to turn down very soon, otherwise we will need to conclude that this market is heading back to the 4.992% high.

We will provide our initial projected endpoint for wave -iii-, after we believe that all of wave -ii- is complete.

Trading Recommendation: Short, risking to 5.50%.

Active Positions: Short risking to 5.50%!          

Gold:

Analysis:

The short-term dip in rates indicated by our wave counts is likely related to a stock market tumble.  Both the projected tumble and the following inflationary rise in rates to follow are good for gold!

We continue to rally in wave .v. of -iii-. Within wave .v., we completed wave ^i^ of *i* at the 1997.20 high and all of wave ^ii^ at the 1931.80. We continue to rally in wave ^iii^, which has a projected endpoint of:

^iii^ = 6.25^i^ = 3249.40.

Within wave *iii* of ^iii^, we completed wave -i- at 2151.20 and wave -ii- at 1973.10.

We are still rallying in a subdividing wave -iii- with wave $i$ ending at 2088.50, wave $ii$ at 1984.30, wave $iii$ at the 2431.50 high, and our wave $iv$ bullish triangle at the 2277.60 low. 

It looks like all of wave $v$ of *iii* ended at the 3167.70 high, wave *iv* at the 2956.90 low and wave *v*, at the 3500.30 high, to complete all of wave -iii-..

If that is the case, then we are now moving lower in wave -iv-, which has the following retracement levels:

23.6% = 3130.10.

38.2% = 2916.90.

We have now reached our 23.6% retracement level, so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave -iv-, perhaps at the 3120.90 low, and the start of another rally in wave -v-…which will see gold move to all-time new high again.

Next major resistance is the downtrend line connecting 3500.33 and 3438.60, which we challenged on Friday.

Here are the weekly chart wave counts:

We are moving higher in a multi-year wave (3) of 3, that has a current projected endpoint of:

(3) = 1.618(1) = 4298.80!

Within wave (3) we are moving higher in wave -iii- which has a current projected endpoint of:

-iii- = 6.250-i- = 3249.40.

Within wave -iii-, we are moving higher in wave *iii* which has an updated projected endpoint of:

*iii* = 6.25*i* = 4660.20.

We are working on the assumption that wave *iii* is still underway, as shown on the Weekly Gold Chart, with wave $iii$ is ending at the 3500.30 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave $iv$,…

Although we have now reached our 23.6% retracement level, so we need to be guard for its completion and the start of another rally in wave $v$.                                                                                                                                                          

Trading Recommendation: Go Long gold. Use puts as stops.

Active Positions: Long gold, with puts as stops!  

Thank-you!

Captain Ewave & Crew

Email: admin@captainewave.com

Website: www.captainewave.com

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