January 18, 2024

Coast is Clear for Bond Buyers in 2024

By Michael Ryval – MorningStar given the swift re-calibration of yields that we’ve […]
November 18, 2023

Where Have All the Foreign Buyers Gone for U.S. Treasury Debt? – WSJ

By The Wall STreet Journal Overseas private investors and central banks now own […]
October 28, 2023

Catastrophe bonds clobber government paper with 16.5% returns – Richard Mills

2023.10.28 It must suck to be a bond investor these days. Bond markets […]
September 13, 2023

US banking crisis has gone quiet, but not away – Richard Mills

2023.09.13 It was exactly six months ago when the US regional banking crisis […]
July 16, 2023

The Inverted Yield Curve and Next US Recession

By QUOTH THE RAVEN No better, more reliable forecaster of the US business […]
July 13, 2023

Jim Grant: We Could Be Heading Toward a Generational Bear Market in Bonds

By SCHIFFGOLD  One of the singularities of the present time is the American position […]
March 23, 2023

Interest Payments On Treasury Debt Up 29% y/y

By macromon Interest payments on the national debt during the current fiscal year (October […]
February 21, 2023

The world’s $13trn interest bill

By The Economist After a calm 2010s, in which interest rates hardly budged, inflation is putting […]
January 21, 2022

Wage slaves vs gold owners, revisited

2022.01.21 Inflation is the rate at which prices within a basket of goods […]
January 11, 2022

Foreign Treasury buyers take pause: a story told in charts

2022.01.11 China and Japan are by far the largest buyers of US Treasuries. […]
August 20, 2021

Gold and the ‘taper tantrum’

2021.08.20 Gold prices are slipping as talk of a “taper tantrum” has investors […]
April 21, 2021

Gold’s perfect storm

There’s an old saying on Wall Street: “Six percent interest will draw money from the moon.” And it’s true, but what is also true is, 1/ As long as real interest rates are below 2% gold is in a bull market and 2/ Real interest rates below 2% draw investors to gold.

Central banks know this, so do educated gold buyers.

With Treasury notes paying such low net yields, gold becomes an attractive investment.
April 14, 2021

Inflation, real interest rates revisited

Gold prices ticked higher on Tuesday after inflation data showed US consumer prices rose in March for the fourth straight month and inflation hit its highest level in 2.5 years.

The US Federal Reserve, whose dual mandate is to keep inflation in the “Goldilocks zone” of around 2% and to control unemployment, has been downplaying inflation, telling the public that even if prices rise, it will only be temporary.
March 10, 2021

Global growth spurt, pent-up demand support higher inflation

The sell-off in bonds that has been tripping up gold prices may be over, with some investors anticipating the bond market will calm down, as appetite for US government debt revives following the sharp rise in yields.

“We think a big part of the bond-yield move has played out,” Wall Street Journal quoted a portfolio manager at PineBridge Investments. “At this level of yields, we do expect additional buyers to come in. That tends to stabilize the yield level.”

Gold bugs are closely watching what happens with Treasuries
March 5, 2021

Real interest rates and gold

Several factors influence gold prices (mainly the US dollar, gold ETF inflows/ outflows, inflation rate, bond yields, safe haven demand, physical gold demand, gold supply) but none is more reliable than real interest rates.

The demand for gold moves inversely to interest rates — the higher the rate of interest, the lower the demand for gold, the lower the rate of interest the higher the demand for gold.
February 25, 2021

Why now might be a good time to buy gold and gold juniors

2021.02.25 Gold has been taking a beating in recent weeks, the sell-off prompted […]
April 7, 2020

Gold closely tracks debt-to-GDP ratio

2020.04.07 The debt-to-GDP ratio is an important metric economists use for comparing a […]
February 26, 2020

Trump or Sanders? Both will pile up the debt

2020.02.26 Whether it’s a Democrat or a Republican installed in the White House […]
February 22, 2020

Gold and bonds soar on ‘fight to quality’

2020.02.22 Gold and silver prices went parabolic this week during a raging storm […]
June 25, 2019

Bonds and equities versus gold

2019.06.25 North American stock markets continued to rise on Friday, as more investors […]
August 9, 2018

Bond Market Bear Creating Gold Bull

2018.08.09 Gold is climbing as bond yields rise and the dollar falls, over […]