April 30, 2024

Stagflation – Richard Mills

2024.04.27 Investors in stocks, bonds and commodities should be aware of the rate […]
April 25, 2024

Is a Volcker-like series of rate hikes in the cards? – Richard Mills

2024.04.21 What if the worst in interest rates is yet to come?  Until […]
April 20, 2024

Mortgage Rates Climb Past 7% for the First Time in 2024

By Felix Richter – Statista Mortgage rates in the United States climbed to […]
February 27, 2024

Don’t be surprised if the Fed raises interest rates – Richard Mills

2024.02.27 The question of whether the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates at its […]
February 24, 2024

Do not expect America’s interest rates to fall just yet

From The Economist Has inflation been vanquished, or is it bouncing back? The […]
February 3, 2024

Want to know when the Fed cuts rates? Watch the consumer – Richard Mills

2024.02.03 The probability of interest rate cuts has many market participants pondering whether […]
December 13, 2023

Developing Countries Receiving the Most Loans from China

By Marcus Lu According to the IMF, the most indebted poor countries in […]
November 30, 2023

$7.6 trillion of US government debt will mature in the next year, adding pressure on rates

By Business Insider Incentive to cut? $7.6 trillion of US government debt will […]
November 30, 2023

Marc Faber: Inflation Is Here to Stay

By SchiffGold During a recent interview at the 2023 Precious Metals Summit Zurich […]
November 29, 2023

Hard landings Recession predictions wrong – Richard Mills

2023.11.29 For over a year now the main topic of discussion has been […]
November 16, 2023

AOTH’s interest rate predictions have been bang on – Richard Mills

2023.11.16 At Ahead of the Herd, we pride ourselves on being right, when […]
November 15, 2023

Interest Consumes 40% of Income Taxes, U.S. Treasury’s Unsustainable Path Raises Default and Inflation Fears

By Citizen Watch Report The interest payments on the national debt alone used […]
November 5, 2023

Central Banks May be Signaling a Plateau in Interest Rates

By Martin Armstrong Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said in a press conference: […]
September 13, 2023

US banking crisis has gone quiet, but not away – Richard Mills

2023.09.13 It was exactly six months ago when the US regional banking crisis […]
August 30, 2023

America’s debt problem is only getting bigger- Richard Mills

2023.08.30 The US officially has a debt problem, in the present and in […]
August 30, 2023


2023.08.30 美国目前以及未来都正式存在债务问题。截止到目前,美国的国债总额略低于 33 万亿美元,占国内生产总值(GDP)的 122%!然而,更大的问题在于其增长速度,导致利息支付不断膨胀。 根据国会预算办公室(CBO)的预测,未来 30 年的利息支付将达到约 71 万亿美元,并在 2053 年占据所有联邦收入的 35%。 […]
May 25, 2023

The Impacts of Rising Interest Rates on Commodities

By Goehring & Rozencwajg What are the impacts of rising interest rates on […]
May 18, 2023

Charting the Rise of America’s Debt Ceiling

By Dorothy Neufeld Every few years the debt ceiling standoff puts the credit […]
May 8, 2023

The Fed Is Moving Historically Fast to Tame Inflation

By Felix Richter Coming off historically low interest rates in the wake of […]
April 3, 2023

Deflating the credit bubble

By Alasdair Macleod How likely is it that the downturn in broad money […]
March 31, 2023

The Coming Doom Loop

By Nouriel Roubini In the face of high and persistent inflation, recession risks, […]
March 28, 2023

Fed Projections: The Ceiling Is in Sight

By Felix Richter If there has been one consistent theme in Jerome Powell’s […]
March 23, 2023

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: March Update on the Housing Bust

By Wolf Richter This is the beginning of spring selling season. So let’s […]
March 23, 2023

Interest Payments On Treasury Debt Up 29% y/y

By macromon Interest payments on the national debt during the current fiscal year (October […]
March 8, 2023

The link between commodities and inflation – Richard Mills

2023.03.08 Has anybody noticed there is something strange going on in commodities? Whether […]
March 2, 2023

Interest rates: The silent killer

By Alasdair Macleod Central banks were happy to suppress interest rates, even into […]
February 11, 2023

Rates Could Go To 6% And Stay There For “Years”

By Quoth the Raven 2023.03.11 It would be a situation where we are […]
February 1, 2023

Bank of Canada: “We’re Pausing to Assess Whether We’ve Done Enough,” Hikes by 1/4% to 4.5%, QT Continues

By Wolf Richter 2023.02.01 The Bank of Canada hiked its policy rates by […]
February 1, 2023

We’re On Thin Ice Into Today’s Fed Decision

By Quoth the Raven 2023.02.01 It’s not the time to celebrate the S&P’s […]
January 31, 2023

Peter Schiff: The Federal Reserve Is Nowhere Near Victory

 BY SCHIFFGOLD 2023.01.31 The mainstream is optimistic about both the economy and the Fed’s […]
January 14, 2023

Fed 101 Cure inflation by destroying demand – Richard Mills

2023.01.14 US inflation cooled in December, putting the US Federal Reserve on track […]
December 31, 2022

The 50th anniversary of Nixon’s colossal error Repost – Richard Mills

It seems fitting that the year we are expecting to see an unprecedented rise in US government spending and money-printing to spur an economic recovery, marks the 50th anniversary of the end of the gold standard.

Done at the time to fight an economic crisis, we are still feeling the effects of this disastrous decision, five decades on.

In this article, we explain why President Nixon did what he did, and why every promise that unshackling the US government from the requirement of maintaining the dollar's value in terms of gold would mean for the United States, has been broken.
December 4, 2022

The mother of all economic crises – Richard Mills

2022.12.04 Economist Nouriel Roubini believes the world economy is lurching toward an unprecedented […]
December 1, 2022

Why the Fed is wrong about inflation coming down – Richard Mills

2022.12.01 The US Federal Reserve continues to grapple with inflation, which at 7.7% […]
November 11, 2022

Precious metals bounce is a taste of what’s to come – Richard Mills

2022.11.11 Gold and silver prices jumped on Thursday following the release of October’s […]
September 17, 2022

How much longer can the dollar trade last? – Richard Mills

2022.09.17 This year has seen a correction in the gold price, commensurate with […]
September 14, 2022

Flying into a coffin corner – Richard Mills

By Richard Mills
August 6, 2022

2% inflation target blinding the Fed to economic reality

2022.08.05 The US Federal Reserve started off declaring that historically high levels of […]
July 27, 2022

Positioning for the next precious metals up-leg

2022.07.27 Gold is a commodity with limited supply, therefore it cannot be “created” […]
June 17, 2022

Falling Dow to gold ratio

2022.06.17 We call ourselves Ahead of the Herd because we see things before […]
April 27, 2022

China will be poster child for developing countries MMT

2022.04.27 Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT, posits that rather than obsessing about how […]
April 22, 2022

Will the Fed raising interest rates cause a recession?

2022.04.22 A recession is what results when an economy stops growing. The National […]
February 8, 2022

1979 vs 2022: Why interest rate hikes are different

2022.02.08 Someone born in 1979 is 43 years old this year. No doubt […]
January 15, 2022

When the Fed is between a rock and a hard place, got gold?

2022.01.05 Inflation is one of the best determinants of gold price movements, because […]
December 18, 2021

How the Fed mishandled 40-year-high inflation

2021.12.18 Several months after the US Federal Reserve began describing the country’s inflation […]
May 3, 2021

Gold to benefit from mounting US debt pile

Climbing yields, as investors rotate funds out of bonds into stocks, on increasing confidence in the economy, is the primary reason why the prices of precious metals gold and silver have pulled back in recent weeks. For now.
April 29, 2021

Gold, silver, inflation and Quantifornication ‘out the wazoo’

While precious metals have somewhat been subdued over recent weeks, there’s a storm brewing that could set gold, and by extension silver, on an upward trajectory once again.
April 21, 2021

Gold’s perfect storm

There’s an old saying on Wall Street: “Six percent interest will draw money from the moon.” And it’s true, but what is also true is, 1/ As long as real interest rates are below 2% gold is in a bull market and 2/ Real interest rates below 2% draw investors to gold.

Central banks know this, so do educated gold buyers.

With Treasury notes paying such low net yields, gold becomes an attractive investment.
April 14, 2021

Inflation, real interest rates revisited

Gold prices ticked higher on Tuesday after inflation data showed US consumer prices rose in March for the fourth straight month and inflation hit its highest level in 2.5 years.

The US Federal Reserve, whose dual mandate is to keep inflation in the “Goldilocks zone” of around 2% and to control unemployment, has been downplaying inflation, telling the public that even if prices rise, it will only be temporary.
March 23, 2021

Competition for energy and battery metals intensifying

Goldman Sachs says that the next structural bull market for commodities will be driven by spending on green energy.

The fossil-fueled based transportation system needs to be electrified, and the switch must be made from oil, gas, and coal-powered power plants to those which run on solar, wind and thorium-produced nuclear energy. If we have any hope of cleaning up the planet, before the point of no return, a massive decarbonization needs to take place.

In a recent report, commodities consultancy Wood Mackenzie said an investment of over $1 trillion will be required in key energy transition metals over the next 15 years, just to meet the growing needs of decarbonization.
March 10, 2021

Global growth spurt, pent-up demand support higher inflation

The sell-off in bonds that has been tripping up gold prices may be over, with some investors anticipating the bond market will calm down, as appetite for US government debt revives following the sharp rise in yields.

“We think a big part of the bond-yield move has played out,” Wall Street Journal quoted a portfolio manager at PineBridge Investments. “At this level of yields, we do expect additional buyers to come in. That tends to stabilize the yield level.”

Gold bugs are closely watching what happens with Treasuries
March 5, 2021

Real interest rates and gold

Several factors influence gold prices (mainly the US dollar, gold ETF inflows/ outflows, inflation rate, bond yields, safe haven demand, physical gold demand, gold supply) but none is more reliable than real interest rates.

The demand for gold moves inversely to interest rates — the higher the rate of interest, the lower the demand for gold, the lower the rate of interest the higher the demand for gold.
February 25, 2021

Why now might be a good time to buy gold and gold juniors

2021.02.25 Gold has been taking a beating in recent weeks, the sell-off prompted […]
February 23, 2021

Commodities and soon Juniors in vogue

2021.02.23 Gold and copper are up, the dollar is down, and bond yields […]
April 7, 2020

Gold closely tracks debt-to-GDP ratio

2020.04.07 The debt-to-GDP ratio is an important metric economists use for comparing a […]
March 25, 2020

Negative real rates puts shine on Getchell’s gold

2020.03.25 A number of factors influence gold prices (mainly the US dollar, gold […]
March 14, 2020

Economic stimulus can’t save US from deflation and recession

2020.03.14 One of the worst weeks on Wall Street mercifully ended on Friday. […]
February 22, 2020

Gold and bonds soar on ‘fight to quality’

2020.02.22 Gold and silver prices went parabolic this week during a raging storm […]
October 19, 2019

The Coming Great Global Reset

2019.10.19 In the first quarter of 2019, global debt hit $246.5 trillion. Encouraged […]
September 4, 2019

Five Feet High And Rising

2019.09.04 How high’s the water, mama? Five feet high and risin’ How high’s the […]
August 5, 2019

Golden consequences

2019.08.05 The long-anticipated US Federal Reserve decision last Wednesday to notch interest rates […]
July 30, 2019

Why Trump’s low-dollar plan won’t work

2019.07.30 The slowdown in the United States, and throughout the world, has led […]
July 6, 2019

Quantifornication round 4 on its way

2019.07.06 Californication is a brilliant 1999 song by the Red Hot Chili Peppers. Many of […]
July 6, 2019

Quantifornication round 4 on its way

2019.07.06 Californication is a brilliant 1999 song by the Red Hot Chili Peppers. Many of […]
June 25, 2019

Bonds and equities versus gold

2019.06.25 North American stock markets continued to rise on Friday, as more investors […]
June 20, 2019

Why are central banks buying gold and dumping dollars?

2019.06.20 The US Federal Reserve, the country’s central bank, did what many expected […]
April 13, 2019

How central bank gold buying is undermining the dollar

2019.04.13 Ahead of the Herd has been digging into why central banks are […]
February 16, 2019

All the macro factors in place for a big gold run

2019.02.16 Gold markets were rocking on Tuesday, lifted by a basket of factors […]