The Great Convergence: North American Natural Gas and the Looming Shift in Global Energy Economics

By Goehring & Rozencwajg

North American natural gas is the cheapest energy molecule on the planet by as much as 75%. Over the next twelve months, we believe this discount could close entirely, boosting US gas prices as much as four-fold. As we go to print, Henry Hub gas costs $3.00 per mcf while European and Asian gas is $14 and $16.50 respectively. One barrel of oil contains between six and eight mmbtu, so dividing oil by the midpoint of seven generates its energy-equivalent price of $10 per mcf.