The Norwegian Illusion

From Goehring & Rozencwajg 

Starting mid-point last decade, the investment community became convinced EV adoption would quickly surge.  EV penetrations would become so great that global oil consumption would imminently peak, or so consensus opinion widely believed.   2019 was repeatedly referenced as the year that oil demand would peak and then decline. In retrospect, these concerns were misplaced. Despite the massive COVID-19 disruption,  oil demand in 2024  should reach 103 m b/d – 2.3 m b/d greater than 2019. Undeterred by the surprising surge in demand, many analysts remain convinced that “peak oil demand” is still imminent.   The investment community’s belief that EVs will displace the internal combustion engine remains as strong as ever.  We vigorously disagree.