Feed your head – Richard Mills

2025.06.25

Iran launched strikes against Israel and a US airbase in Qatar following the bombing of three nuclear sites by the United States over the weekend.

In Qatar, the Iranian strikes targeted the Al Udeid air base, which is used by local forces as well as American, British and other foreign troops. According to Times of Israel, Iran fired 19 missiles at the base, one of which hit. Iran claimed that six missiles struck the base.

Iran had provided advance warning before launching the attack. Qatari and US officials said no casualties or injuries were sustained.

Meanwhile Iran launched its biggest and most powerful missile — the Khorramshar-4 — which struck Tel Aviv, Sunday.

CTV News reports Iran launched more than 40 missiles toward Israel, wounding 23 and destroying apartment buildings and homes:

At an impact site in Tel Aviv, the blast had sheared off the face of a multistory residential building and damaged several others — including a nursing home — in a radius of hundreds of meters (yards). But few people were wounded, as many residents had been evacuated and others made it to bomb shelters.

Other media reports say the centerpiece of the attack was the Khorramshar-4 missile, also known as the Kheibar. Standing 14 meters tall with a diameter of 1.5 meters, the Khorramshahr-4 weighs approximately 20,000 kilograms (20 tons) when fully loaded.

The missile, said to be inspired by North Korea’s Hwasong-10 intermediate-range ballistic missile, which is also a modified version of the Soviet R-27 (SS-N-6) submarine-launched ballistic missile, is turning heads across the Middle East.

According to India-based Republic:

The missile has an official range of 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles), which easily covers the distance from Iran to Israel. However, military experts believe the real range could be up to 4,000 kilometers, making it capable of hitting targets across much of Europe and Asia.

The Khorramshahr-4 can carry a massive warhead weighing between 1,500 to 1,800 kilograms (3,300 to 3,968 pounds). Of this weight, about 1,000 kilograms are pure explosives. The missile can also be equipped with multiple smaller warheads, allowing it to strike up to 80 different targets in one attack.

The missile travels at mind-bending speeds—Mach 16 (16 times the speed of sound) outside Earth’s atmosphere and Mach 8 within the atmosphere. This incredible speed makes it extremely difficult for air defense systems to track and intercept.

The Khorramshahr-4 is launched from mobile platforms, giving Iran the flexibility to move and hide the launchers. What makes this missile particularly dangerous is its quick launch preparation time—less than 12-15 minutes from decision to launch. This is possible because it uses hypergolic self-igniting fuel, which doesn’t require the complex fuel injection processes that other missiles need.

The missile features an advanced guidance system that allows it to change course while flying outside Earth’s atmosphere. It has guiding micromotors that help control and adjust its path, making it very difficult for defense systems to predict where it will hit.

The warhead is designed to be resistant to electronic warfare attacks, and it can disable its own guidance system when re-entering the atmosphere to avoid being jammed by enemy defenses.

Despite its massive size, the Khorramshahr-4 is surprisingly accurate, with experts estimating it can hit targets within 10-30 meters of its intended point, even at maximum range.

President Trump announced on Monday that Israel and Iran had reached a ceasefire, but its status remained unclear as attacks continued Tuesday. According to Trump’s Truth Social post, the ceasefire wouldn’t begin until midnight Tuesday Eastern time.

Trump was reportedly angry with Israel for violating the cessation of hostilities.

“Israel, as soon as we made the deal they came out and they dropped a load of bombs, the likes of which I’ve never seen before,” Trump said, adding “I’m not happy with Israel. You know, when I say, ‘OK now you have 12 hours,’ you don’t go out to the first hour, just drop everything you have on, so I’m not happy with them. I’m not happy with Iran either.” 

“We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing,” a furious Trump said of Israel and Iran, each of which he accused of violating the truce he announced the night earlier. (CNN)

The strikes

Did the US bombing of three nuclear sites Sunday in Iran destroy the country’s nuclear program as claimed by Trump? The president said the strikes caused “monumental damage”, adding in a social media post: “Obliteration is an accurate term.”

But as we learn more about the strikes, these descriptions appear to be inaccurate; evidence shows that Iran’s nuclear program remains intact, particularly its stockpile of enriched uranium.

First, what we know about the strikes. Early Sunday morning local time, US forces bombed three nuclear sites — Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. This ended a week of speculation whether the US would get involved, or have Israel conduct a bombing raid or ground raid on the facilities.

The strikes were intended to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon.

It turns out the United States is the only country that could carry out such an attack because the main site, Fordow, is buried deep underground inside a mountain south of Tehran.

At Fordow and Natanz, so-called bunker buster bonds were used. The bombs weigh a massive 13,000 kg and can penetrate 18 meters of concrete (60 feet) or 61m (200 feet) of earth before exploding.

The BBC reports the operation, codenamed Midnight Hammer, involved 125 US military aircraft targeting Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. At a press conference, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff disclosed more details, saying:

• The aircraft took off from the US and made an 18-hour journey to Iran.

• Some jets were sent west into the Pacific as a “decoy”, while others went ahead of the main bombers to ensure airspace was clear.

• Seven B-2 stealth bombers tasked with hitting the nuclear sites flew into Iran and avoided detection.

• At the same time, two dozen cruise missiles were launched at the Isfahan site from a submarine – in total, 75 “precision-guided weapons” were used during the operation.

• Fourteen GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) were dropped on the Fordow site, a nuclear enrichment facility buried deep below a mountain outside Tehran, which is vital to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

• Only the US operates these huge so-called bunker buster bombs, the sole weapons that could conceivably reach the concealed site.

Fordow

The BBC reports satellite images taken on June 22 show six fresh craters clustered around two entry points at the Fordow nuclear site, most likely where the US bombs fell, as well as grey dust and debris scattered down the mountainside.

Fordow has long been regarded as the most difficult military target among Iran’s nuclear sites. The Fordow enrichment facility — the primary target of the operation — is reportedly constructed beneath 45-90 meters of bedrock, largely limestone, beneath the Zagros mountains.

The site was hit by a dozen bunker busters at approximately 2:10 am Iranian time. The bombs likely targeted the tunnels under Fordow. Access tunnels overground lead to a 250-meter-long hall thought to contain the enrichment centrifuges, as well as ventilation shafts.

The Iranian Red Crescent Society reported no deaths from the strikes, appearing to confirm Iranian claims they had been largely evacuated in advance, The Guardian stated.

Both Saudi Arabia and the UN’s nuclear watchdog said there had been no increase in radiation levels after the attack — casting doubt on the effectiveness of the operation.

How much damage could the strike have done if no radiation was released?

Two Israeli officials who spoke to the New York Times described serious damage at Fordow but said the site had not been completely destroyed.

Natanz

Previously damaged by the June Israeli strikes on Iran, assessments suggest the power plant supplying the main centrifuge hall had been hit. Uranium had been enriched up to 60%, short of the 90% required for nuclear-weapons grade material.

The Guardian said Enhancement of satellite images from the site on Sunday showed fresh damage to overground buildings and new cratering in the centre of the site.

Natanz is about 140 km south of Fordow.

Sky News reported that Israeli raids targeted surface buildings, including stores of enriched uranium. However, post-strike radiation monitoring suggested there was little, if any, nuclear material there.

It must be noted that two years ago, Associated Press reported that workers were building a nuclear facility so deep in the earth as to be beyond the range of bunker bombs:

The new construction was to replace an above-ground centrifuge manufacturing center at Natanz struck by an explosion in 2020.

Based on the size of the spoil piles and other satellite data, experts at the center told AP that Iran is likely building a facility at a depth of between 80 meters (260 feet) and 100 meters (328 feet) …

The Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington-based nonprofit long focused on Iran’s nuclear program, suggested last year the tunnels could go even deeper.

Experts say the size of the construction project indicates Iran likely would be able to use the underground facility to enrich uranium as well — not just to build centrifuges…

“So, the depth of the facility is a concern because it would be much harder for us. It would be much harder to destroy using conventional weapons, such as like a typical bunker buster bomb,” said Steven De La Fuente, a research associate at the center who led the analysis of the tunnel work.

Isfahan

Isfahan’s nuclear technology center was struck by Tomahawk cruise missiles fired from an Ohio-class submarine as opposed to bunker busters, the Guardian said.

According to the IAEA, in addition to four hit by Israeli strikes, six other buildings had now been attacked, including a fuel rod production facility. It said facilities targeted at Isfahan either contained no nuclear material or small quantities of natural or low-enriched uranium.

Enriched uranium likely moved; sites evacuated

TWZ wrote satellite imagery shows that Iran took steps to seal off its nuclear enrichment facility at Fordow in the days leading up to the US strikes, which would have shielded it against a potential ground raid.

Sky News reports Iran is thought to have moved any enriched uranium before the strikes occurred.

The Guardian concurs that satellite imagery suggests there was unusual traffic flow at Fordow prior to the attack; three days before the strikes, 16 cargo trucks were seen near the Fordow entrance tunnel. Could the trucks have been spiriting away the enriched uranium? It seems likely.

Hassan Abedini, the deputy political head of Iran’s state broadcaster, said Iran had evacuated the three sites – Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow – some time ago.

The enriched uranium reserves had been transferred from the nuclear centres and there are no materials left there that, if targeted, would cause radiation and be harmful to our compatriots,” he said.

The head of the AEOI, Mohammad Eslami, claimed this month that Iran had another enrichment site “in a secure and invulnerable location” that could house centrifuges.

NPR said Two independent experts analyzing commercial satellite imagery told NPR that the nation’s long-running nuclear enterprise is far from destroyed, adding that Iran likely still has stocks of highly enriched uranium.

The publication said Iranian authorities hadn’t reported a jump in off-site radiation following the bombings.

Science and technology editor Tom Clarke noted in a separate column that, while The loss of industrial-scale centrifuge “cascades” used to enrich uranium will certainly derail any imminent deadlines in weaponization, [Iran] has already amassed a sizeable stockpile of highly enriched uranium and may even have already enriched some of it to the 90% or so needed to make fissile material necessary for a bomb…

Moving it, splitting it up, concealing it, is not beyond the wit of a nation that expected these assaults may be coming.

Iran’s nuclear programme is also more than its large-scale facilities. Iran has been developing nuclear expertise and industrial processes for decades. It would take more than a concerted bombing campaign to wipe that out.

The final steps to “weaponize” highly enriched uranium are technically challenging, but Iran was known to be working on them more than 20 years ago.

Iran also does not require industrial-scale facilities like those needed to enrich uranium, meaning they could be more easily concealed in a network of smaller, discrete lab-sized buildings.

“This is a very well-developed, long-standing programme with a lot of latent expertise in the country,” said Darya Dolzikova, a proliferation and nuclear security expert at RUSI, a UK defence and security thinktank.

“I don’t think we’re talking about a full elimination at this point, certainly not by military means.”

Where is the uranium?

YouTube channel WION (The World Is One News) begins answering this question by stating that Iran’s most critical nuclear sites are located deep underground and so far, there is no clear confirmation about the extent of below-surface damage.

It said even as the US and Israel conduct its damage assessment, the fate of Iran stockpiles of enriched uranium remains unknown. Vice President JD Vance has reportedly acknowledged that the US does not know where the stockpile is; his administration is making the stockpile a priority in any future discussions with Iran.

WION confirms satellite images captured before the strikes at Fordow showed large trucks were observed at the entrance to the site. Iranian state media later reported that key nuclear materials including enriched uranium had been moved to secure locations.

The IAEA has called for the immediate return of inspectors to Iran’s nuclear sites to account for its highly enriched uranium stockpiles; the organization has not independently verified the current location or status of the enriched uranium.

Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, California, who tracks Iran’s nuclear facilities, told NPR the nation’s long-running nuclear enterprise is far from destroyed.

“At the end of the day there are some really important things that haven’t been hit,” Lewis said. “If this ends here, it’s a really incomplete strike.”

In particular, NPR quotes Lewis saying he strike doesn’t seem to have touched Iran’s stocks of highly enriched uranium.

“Today, it still has that material and we still don’t know where it is,” he says.

“I think you have to assume that significant amounts of this enriched uranium still exist, so this is not over by any means,” agrees David Albright, the president of the Institute for Science and International Security, which has closely tracked Iran’s nuclear program for years…

Albright says Iran may also have thousands of uranium-enriching centrifuges that were never installed in Natanz and Fordo. It might be possible to move the uranium to another, covert facility, where it could be enriched to the required 90% for a nuclear weapon in a relatively short period of time.

Iran and the bomb

To build a nuclear weapon, Iran wants to get a stockpile of 90% enriched uranium 235. The country already has about 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium 235, but it needs centrifuges and enrichment facilities to reach that 90% threshold.

Ironically, Iran’s quest to develop a nuclear capability began with the support of President Eisenhower in 1957. Through his ‘Atoms for Peace’ policy, by the 1970s Iran was building nuclear reactors with American and European help, until that partnership collapsed under the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Iran quickly labeled the US, Britain and Israel as enemies due to their ties with the deposed Shah.

Although Iran insisted it wasn’t pursuing atomic weapons as a nuclear non-proliferation treaty signatory, it secretly ran a weapons program from then until at least 2003 despite denials from its Supreme Leader.

In the 1980’s the Islamic Republic began secretly importing nuclear material from Pakistan and China. By the ‘90s it had allocated funds to build five nuclear bombs and conduct an underground test according to Israel’s Mossad. (Although it is impossible to believe anything Israel says about Iran’s nuclear program – Rick)

When Iran’s secret nuclear program was finally exposed in 2002, it triggered years of international sanctions.

US intelligence later reported that the former weapons program was halted in 2003 by Ayatollah Khamenei.

By 2006 Iran had resumed uranium enrichment, claiming it was strictly for energy and medical use as permitted under its agreement with the UN’s nuclear watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency.

“Was that enrichment destined for civilian use?” asks TVP World. “At first, maybe”.

Enriching uranium for power plants involves the same core process, namely centrifuge construction, as the one involved in making weapons fuel.

Uranium becomes weapons grade at 90% purity. Nuclear power plants only need it enriched to around 3.5 to 5%.

Yet Iran was acquiring and enriching uranium to 60% — dangerously close to weapons-grade — and hiding key facilities like Natanz and Fordow.

The US and Israel then launched covert operations to sabotage Iran’s enrichment program. In 2010 Iran uncovered Stuxnet, a malicious computer worm embedded in its nuclear centrifuge systems likely since at least 2007. Stuxnet subtly degraded the centrifuges, causing them to spin out of control and break down. Over time it eventually destroyed nearly one-fifth of Iran’s machines before officials figured out what was happening.

Despite these setbacks and mutual distrust, Iran’s relations with its neighbors saw a rare stretch of stability, culminating in a 2015 nuclear deal with the US and other major powers. Iran agreed to cap uranium enrichment, reduce stockpiles and allow strict international inspections. Tehran says it has honored the deal ever since, despite efforts to tarnish its good name and true intentions, take anything Iran says with the same amount of skepticism as you do what Israel says.

The compliance apparently continued albeit briefly even after President Trump pulled out of the Obama deal in 2018, calling it a disaster and initiating new sanctions instead.

By mid-2019 Iran began discarding the agreement’s limits, ramping up enrichment and dismantling IAEA monitoring equipment. A year later Israel likely orchestrated the assassination of the architect of Iran’s nuclear program. Meanwhile the Biden administration never rejoined the original agreement and negotiations dragged on, eventually landing in the lap of the new Trump administration.

Steve Witkoff, Trump special envoy for the Middle East and Russia and Ukraine, was set to attend a sixth round of talks until Israel struck.

“So, on the surface it looked like there was still good faith in Iran’s desire to negotiate. Even this year’s US intelligence threat assessment maintained that its nuclear weapons program remained frozen,” TVP World states.

In March National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard told Congress that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003.

When logic and proportion
Have fallen sloppy dead
And the White Knight is talking backwards
And the Red Queen’s off with her head
Remember what the dormouse said
Feed your head
Feed your head

White Rabbit by
Jefferson Airplane

Of course, Israel has been saying Iran is on the brink of building a bomb for the last 20 years, nonetheless there are many issues in Iran’s story that really don’t stick.

For all its talk of an industrial nuclear program and billions spent on enriching hundreds of kilograms of uranium across three facilities, Iran hasn’t once fueled its only operating nuclear power plant. Even more curiously, while Tehran plans to build additional plants, these will be constructed by Russia, which typically provides fuel for the reactors it builds.

In February the New York Times reported that US and Israeli intelligence had uncovered a secret uranium team developing crude nuclear weapons easier to assemble and quicker to deploy. Then came June and the IAEA’s damning report. For the first time in two decades, it formally rebuked Iran for stonewalling inspectors and declared it could no longer confirm the program’s peaceful nature. According to the agency Iran now holds enough enriched uranium to build up to 9 conventional bombs.

Read more here

On June 13, Israel launched a surprise attack on dozens of Iranian nuclear and military targets.

Iran retaliated by launching some 550 ballistic missiles and around 1,000 drones at Israel.

Conclusion

Down but not out has to be the conclusion of this article.

The air strikes may have weakened Iran’s nuclear capabilities, but they haven’t destroyed the most important aspect of the program: Iran’s uranium, enriched to 60% purity and not far from the 90% required for weapons-grade U-235.

Satellite imagery taken days before the attacks show trucks lining up to remove enriched uranium from one of the sites that was later targeted for bombing by the United States. Nobody except Iran knows where that uranium is now. There have been reports of hundreds of kilometers of tunnels dug into Iran’s mountainous—desert terrain. The probability of more enrichment sites beyond the three that Iran showcases for the IAEA, the UN inspectors and the media is high.

The head of the AEOI, Mohammad Eslami, claimed this month that Iran had another enrichment site “in a secure and invulnerable location” that could house centrifuges.

In 2023 workers were building a nuclear facility at Natanz so deep in the earth as to be beyond the range of bunker bombs.

The Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington-based nonprofit long focused on Iran’s nuclear program, suggested in 2022 the tunnels could go even deeper. Could Iran be housing uranium enrichment facilities deep underground at Natanz, out of reach of the bunker busting bombs that were dropped on it?

And how about the 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium Iran claims to have? 400 kg is less than half a tonne. It seems unlikely that this is the extent of Iran’s uranium stockpile, especially with Russia having the capacity to provide a near-unlimited supply of nuclear fuel.

Now, having paid a small price in the diminishment of its nuclear program, Iran has won a diplomatic and economic victory.

Soon after brokering a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, Trump announced that China is now free to purchase crude oil from Iran, the world’s sixth largest oil producer. Beijing buys over 90% of Iran’s oil exports.

“China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran. Hopefully, they will be purchasing plenty from the U.S., also. It was my Great Honor to make this happen,” Trump posted on Truth Social.

Clearly the United States understood the risk of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz and decided to throw Tehran a bone. By ‘letting’ China continue to buy 1.5 mbpd of sanctioned Iranian oil and helping fund Iran’s state sponsored terrorism.

Does Iran have the right to produce civilian nuclear power? Absolutely. But why would any country insist they were going to buy uranium, and than enrich it and face, go thru, all this destruction that has been visited on them?

The Nuclear Energy Institute reports that fuel costs are around 17% of the total generating cost. The cost of nuclear fuel is the cheapest part of overall operating expenses in producing civilian nuclear energy, compared to other costs like labor, maintenance, and capital expenditures.

Iran could trade oil for uranium-235 to a lot of countries; they do have trade agreements with China who already buys a lot of Iran’s sanctioned oil. Trade oil for reactor grade uranium, why do they have to be the ones to enrich it?

No country, except those with nuclear weapons programs, enriches uranium to 60%. U-235 is used in reactors, and it is enriched to 3% to use as fuel. There is no reason for a country that doesn’t want a bomb to be enriching to such a high level, as Iran is doing.

Meanwhile, Iran has all it’s enriched uranium at some unknown buried enrichment site; and they are even more intent on manufacturing nuclear weapons…while everyone believes their nuclear capabilities have been destroyed.

Richard (Rick) Mills
aheadoftheherd.com

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