China Needs a Consumption Target

By Stephen S. Roach – Project Syndicate

As Chinese leaders prepare the 15th Five-Year Plan, early signs indicate that it will focus on continuing China’s extraordinary technological ascendancy. But they should be more concerned with boosting consumer demand, which means setting a clear target of raising household consumption to 50% of GDP by 2035.

SHANGHAI – The Chinese planning season is in full swing. Ahead of the formal release of the 15th Five-Year Plan (running from 2026 to 2030) in March 2026, early signs coming out of the just-completed Fourth Plenum of the Communist Party of China suggest that it will be more of the same: a focus on continuing China’s extraordinary industrial and technological ascendancy, driven by what Chinese President Xi Jinping has called “new productive forces.”