The End of Abundant Energy: Shale Production and Hubbert’s Peak

By Goehring & Rozencwajg

Crude oil fundamentals are very tight and risk getting considerably tighter. Investors continue to starve energy companies of much-needed capital, the lifeblood of a solid supply base. Although the trend of lower spending has been in place for several years, our models tell us we are nearing a critical inflection point: the growth in shale oil production — the only source of non-OPEC+ production growth over the past two decades — may be coming to an end.