Drought picture mixed in the US and Canada – Richard Mills

2025.07.04

Over 25% of the United States is experiencing drought conditions but the dry spots are localized, with some farmers faring worse than others.

Similarly, parts of Alberta received a welcome deluge in June, while other sections of the province didn’t get much rain and remain in drought.

Growing conditions could worsen as the summer rolls on.

A heat dome is expected to settle over the central United States in July and August. The dome could creep northward into southern Canada.

Canadian farmers are bracing for another unpredictable harvest. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s latest crop outlook shows deepening drought in Western Canada and excessive rain in the East.

The good and the bad

Farmers in the West and southeast Texas have endured weeks of dry conditions but that isn’t the case in the central Corn Belt where growing conditions have been excellent, reports AgWeb Farm Journal.

First, the good. Iowa crops are off to a strong start this season, with the US Department of Agriculture’s Crop Progress report rating 85% of the corn crop and 77% of the state’s soybean crop as excellent.

Nationally, 73% of the corn crop and 66% of soybeans were in good to excellent condition, USDA-NASS (National Agricultural Statistics Service) estimated in its weekly report released on June 30^th.

Next, the bad. U.S. Drought Monitor reported on June 24th that 25.83% of the US and Puerto Rico were experiencing some level of drought. This included 16% of corn acres, 12% of soybean acres and 3% of cotton areas.

39% of durum wheat acres were experiencing higher levels of drought. For barley acres it was 29%, 25% of spring wheat, and 20% of winter wheat acres.

USDA reports drought conditions continue to build up in the northern half of the High Plains, impacting rangelands and pastures. In the West, hot and dry conditions have blanketed the region for weeks. Montana led all states from the Rockies eastward with 47% of its rangeland and pastures rated in poor to very poor conditions on June 29th.

Other states feeling the heat and dry include Colorado, Utah, and California, where wildfires have broken out.

According to U.S. Drought Monitor, more than half of Colorado is in drought, with the most severe conditions on the Western Slope. CBS News reports the problem stems from a dry winter which delivered a lower-than-normal snowpack. This, combined with unusually warm temperatures, left the region parched and fire prone.

By contrast, a storm system last week dropped significant rainfall across Colorado’s Eastern Plains, keeping conditions drought-free.

More than 91% of Utah is in drought, with the remaining 9% classified as abnormally dry. A full 100% of the state hasn’t been in drought since December 2022.

For example, Salt Lake City only saw one day of rain in June compared to the average five days. The area north of the I-80 corridor only saw 10-30% of its usual precipitation over the last three months.

Drought conditions are expected to worsen as the summer progresses. If Utah receives a sustained period of above-average rainfall, that will improve the drought, but periods of scattered thunderstorms are not expected to do much, said Alex DeSmet, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

He said long-term relief likely won’t come until the snow arrives.

Meanwhile in California, wildfires have erupted as drought conditions expand. On July 1 Fox News reported more than a dozen fires igniting since Saturday, with most of the blazes burning in the southern half of the state where it’s driest.

U.S. Drought Monitor said around 70% of the state is either unusually dry or in drought, with no relief in sight as it enters the driest months of the year.

The Camp Fire of 2018 rates as the worst wildfire in California history. Other fires of note include the Tubbs Fire (2017), the Palisades/ Eaton Fires (2025), the August Complex Fire (2020) and the Dixie Fire (2021) — The worst wildfires in California history

AgWeb Farm Journal quotes John Hoomenuk of EmpireWeather.com, who anticipates farmers in the Central Plains will see drier, hotter conditions in July. That could mean four to five degrees above normal in some areas of Kansas and Nebraska, and two to three degrees hotter for the month on average.

The Weather Network says a heat dome is expected to persist over the central United States and parts of southern Canada during July and August:

We anticipate that this will result in widespread drought across that region, and we are concerned that drought conditions will expand north of the border, particularly across the southern Prairies, with the potential for significant impacts on agriculture.

Last year around this time, a heat dome parked itself across Eastern Canada and the US Northeast and Midwest.

Extreme heat is by far the deadliest form of severe weather, killing on average twice as many people a year as tornadoes and hurricanes combined, CNN has noted.

Heat domes occur when winds in the upper atmosphere, also known as the jet stream, are influenced by the ocean below. Hot seas cause the winds to shift, resulting in areas of high pressure that trap hot air in place for weeks.

In 2021, a heat dome that settled over western North America killed 619 people in BC alone, mostly seniors stuck in apartments or hotels with no air conditioning. In Lytton, British Columbia, Canada’s hot spot of 49.6C was recorded on June 29, 2021. The next day a wildfire completely destroyed the town.

Shortage of immigrant labor has crops rotting

It’s not only the weather that has US farmers on edge this growing season; it’s also politics. Newsweek reported on June 30 that:

Immigration enforcement operations on farms have left crops rotting and farm operations disrupted in major agricultural states including California, Texas, and Pennsylvania.

Farm owners and industry representatives report that up to 70 percent of workers stopped reporting to work following Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) actions, resulting in significant crop losses and financial strain.

“We do not have enough workforce in the United States to do manual work, to do those jobs that other people are not qualified to do and do not want to do it,” Alexandra Sossa, CEO of Farmworker and Landscaper Advocacy Project, told Newsweek. “For example, we are running into a problem where we do not have enough farm workers to grow the food we eat every day.

“Now we do not have enough workers to go to the meatpacking processing industries and factories to produce, to pack the food that we are eating.”

Other key points in the Newsweek piece:

• Congress has yet to pass legislation to deliver security for farm workers.

• The Department of Agriculture estimates that nearly half of the nation’s agricultural workforce is in the country without legal status.

• States like California, which produce more than one-third of the country’s vegetables and three-quarters of its fruits and nuts, rely heavily on this labor force. Farmers say the increased enforcement in June led to widespread crop loss and food waste.

• Producers warn that continued labor disruptions could affect the food supply chain, drive up costs for consumers, and force farms to shut down or automate more quickly.

June downpour saves Alberta crops

In Canada we don’t have to worry about ICE raids on undocumented farm workers, but excessive heat and precipitation are just as likely to wreak havoc on farms north of the border as south of it.

In Alberta, Calgary and the surrounding area appeared to be facing another bout of drought when welcome rains arrived the weekend of June 21-22; up to 100 millimeters of precipitation fell.

CBC News noted one Airdrie-area farmer only had up to two weeks of reserve moisture for his crops due to dry soil and high temperatures made worse by strong winds.

“It’s just not good prime growing conditions,” Larry Woolliams said. Then came the heavy downpour. “You could just see everything give that sigh of relief… Everything started regrowing.”

Other parts of the province weren’t so lucky. Areas in the (northern) Peace River region and in the southeast received little rainfall, or none, over the June 21-22 weekend.

CBC quoted Trevor Hadwen with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada saying that areas of Alberta still experiencing drought conditions remain “a very big concern for producers in the region.”

Two of the worst-hit are Medicine Hat and Lethbridge.

Deep drought in Western Canada, excessive rain in the East

Nation-wide, over half of Canada’s agricultural land entered the growing season under drought conditions, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s latest crop outlook released June 20th.

Seedworld summarizes the AgCanada forecast:

In Alberta and Saskatchewan, spring arrived hot and dry, tightening the grip of water scarcity on some of Canada’s most productive farmland. Yet along the coasts and into Eastern Canada, rainfall was excessive, delaying planting and reducing standability for crops like canola.

That contrast defines the 2025-2026 crop year. Overall production is expected to slip slightly compared to last year. And while some regions are thriving, others are teetering on the brink of stress-induced losses.

Some examples:

• Spring wheat is predicted to remain stable in production and pricing, with Saskatchewan’s average price increasing to $290/tonne. But that optimism is tempered by falling stocks and the need for rain to salvage crop quality.
• Durum, the wheat pasta, saw record export volumes last year to Italy, Algeria and Morocco. This year shipments are projected to drop by 10%, as those nations refill their domestic reserves.
• Barley supplies are shrinking as acreage continues to decline, and carry-out stocks are nearing historic lows. Oat exports remain strong to the US, but global demand is slipping, and Canadian inventories are barely keeping pace.
• Canola yields dipped in 2024 due to drought and heat, and though 2025 planting is strong, the forecast production of 18 million tonnes will test the limits of soil moisture reserves.
• In pulses, the news is mixed. Lentils are holding steady, but dry peas are in trouble. After years of heavy exports to China, new import tariffs are slashing demand and driving Canadian carry-out stocks to a record high. Prices have already tumbled 20%, with more downside risk ahead.
• Soybean acres are holding steady, and production remains strong thanks to solid yields in Ontario and Quebec. Yet global oversupply is pushing prices down to $480/tonne, a signal that Canada’s edge in this crop is narrowing.
• Rye, on the other hand, is staging a surprise comeback. Seeded area is up 56%, and production is at a 30-year high.

Hot July, August expected

As always in farming, much depends on the weather, and we have only just entered the summer. Nobody has a crystal ball, but we do have the Weather Network.

Its 2025 summer forecast expects most of Canada will experience warmer-than-normal temperatures during June, July and August.

Areas stretching from the Rockies to northwestern Ontario face a risk of extended heat waves and a few days of extreme heat. While the excessive heat could push into British Columbia, the Weather Network does not expect it to be as persistent as across the Prairies.

In Eastern Canada, unlike last year’s heat dome, a warm and humid summer is expected; the network does not anticipate extreme heat.

As for this summer’s precipitation forecast, expect a mix of drought and storms. Western Canada should see below-normal rainfall, and as mentioned above, a heat dome positioned above the central United States could migrate into the Canadian Prairies, with the potential for significant impacts on agriculture.

To the north of the drought areas there will be frequent thunderstorms, including the threat of severe storms with localized torrential rain. This weather pattern with thunderstorms that track around the edge of the heat dome is referred to as the “ring of fire” on the image below.

Eastern Canada — from east of the Great Lakes to Atlantic Canada — is not expected to experience drought conditions, in fact quite the opposite. The region will see more frequent showers and thunderstorms, according to the Weather Network, which also says it is concerned about wildfires across much of BC and northwestern Ontario.

According to the B.C. Wildfire Dashboard, as of July 2^nd there were 85 active wildfires, of which 34% were out of control, 26% were being held, and 34% were under control. The Izman Creek fire near Lytton is currently the only wildfire of note, at 155 hectares as of July 3^rd.

Richard (Rick) Mills
aheadoftheherd.com

Subscribe to AOTH’s free newsletter