The fossil-fuel elephant in the electrification room – A conversation we need to have – Richard Mills

2023.02.05

Hi

We should be having this conversation at the highest levels.

Rick

The fossil-fuel elephant in the electrification room

@lexcon  @Mills re: fossil fuel elephant in the room

is this based on the sun shining 24hrs a day?

“Let’s say it is able to operate half the time, or 182 days. 500MW x 24 = 12,000 MWh x 182 = 2,184,000 MWh. 134,838,220,000 MWh divided by 2,184,000 = 61,739 500MW solar farms.”

depending on time of year and latitude the solar panels may only put out their nominal rated output between 4 and 12 hrs a day most days. You did drop the capacity factor to 50% by using 182 days but it looks like that is more than offset by multiplying the 500Mw by 24 hrs in a day?

@Mills I’m always very conservative in my numbers. And still manage to overwhelming make my point of a renewable boondoggle, a clusterf— of epic proportions that in no way, in any scenario, makes sense either from a supply or economic case.

Even in a best case scenario of wind blowing and sun shining 24 hrs daily for half the year the numbers just aren’t in favor of renewables, not even close, so its hard to argue, even try and debate.

This is a conversation that needs to be had at the highest levels.

From the CEO.ca Boardroom re The fossil-fuel elephant in the electrification room – Richard Mills

@CautiousNow @Mills Another great article that should be required reading for every politician and senior bureaucrat, every journalist who purports to comment on politics, energy and finance and everyone who is actually serious about understanding the energy transition.

That the political class, the media and the intelligentsia appear to have made little effort to understand the implications inherent in the “all in on a rapid transition from fossil fuels” narrative is a disgrace.

The backlash from citizens will be enormous when they understand the true costs of tearing the shingles off the roof before new shingles are in hand based on the ideological fantasies of the so called intelligentsia and advocates (including lobby groups) who profit financially from the anti fossil fuels narrative.

Hopefully, we start to see terms like intermittency, redundancy and energy density showing up in political discourse and the MSM soon.

For context on my views, I am not a climate change denier, I regard myself as an energy realist.

A transition cannot possibly proceed faster than grid logistics, access to long duration energy storage well beyond 12 hours that is scalable at a reasonable cost and access to the required volume of critical metals at a relatively stable cost.