Oil spikes groceries skyrocket

Diesel prices for farmers doubled year-over-year, impacting field equipment, refrigeration, and freight shipping. Coupled with delayed supply chain disruptions and weather shocks, this drives persistent grocery inflation.

Crude oil surged over 54% to $100–$104 per barrel. Escalating regional tensions and maritime bottleneck closures risk pushing Brent crude into a $120–$125 bear-case shock range.

Surging natural gas prices double or triple manufacturing costs for synthetic nitrogen fertilizers (Haber-Bosch process)—a key input responsible for 50% of total global food production and sustaining nearly 4 billion people.