By Zoltan Pozsar
In 2019, James Sweeney, then chief economist at Credit Suisse, popped into my office and said “you know this pandemic and lockdowns… this is where your world [funding] and my world [global industrial production] intersect, because supply chains are payment chains in reverse”. I thrive on memes, and after James’ blitz visit, we quickly wrote Covid-19 and Global Dollar Funding, a piece that explained why the pandemic would lead to a major funding crisis… In 2022, Pippa Malmgren became my source of macro stimulus. Her meme that “World War III has already started, but it’s different from “traditional” world wars: it is a hot war in cold places [like Svalbard, underwater, cyberspace, and space], and a cold war in hot places [like islands in the Pacific, the DRC, and the Sahel]” inspired me to write four “war” dispatches last year: War and Interest Rates, War and Industrial Policy, War and Commodity Encumbrance, and finally,
War and Currency Statecraft.