The Yield Curve’s Steep Inversion, now Partial Un-inversion, the Sag in the Middle, and its Predictions of Recessions

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET

Following the jobs report on Friday that showed job creation had deteriorated from “decent” to “weak,” yields dropped across the board, except for the 30-year yield, which ticked up. Yields fell the most for 1-year maturities (-11 basis points) and for 2-year maturities (-9 basis points):

• 1-month yield: -2 bps to 5.28%
• 3-month yield: -2 bps to 5.13%;
• 1-year yield: -11 bps to 4.10%
• 2-year yield: -9 bps to 3.66%
• 10-year yield: -1 bp to 3.72%
• 30-year yield: +1 bp to 4.03%