A Collapse of the Russian Economy Might Lead to Chinese Aggression

By Richard E. Caroll – Modern Diplomacy

While Mao Zedong once questioned the legality of the Unequal Treaties, he acknowledged that there was no hope of recovering the lost territory. 

The circumstances are different today, currently China is totally dependent on imported oil, and the free use of the world’s oceans.  Ironically it is the United States navy which guarantees peaceful transit on the world’s oceans, and in the event of conflict, those ocean trade routes would not be open and free.  In the event of conflict, China will need an alternative source of oil, and the land taken from China by the Treaty of Aigun has plentiful reserves of the oil she needs.

In the event of a collapse of the Russian economy and government, the ability of Russia to protect its sovereignty in Siberia would be negligible except for the use of nuclear weapons.  It is doubtful that Russia being so weakened would revert to the use of its nuclear weapons,

Such an adjustment to Russia’s polity would be a strategic threat to the United States, and might mean the United States, along with its allies, sending military forces into Siberia to prevent such a happenstance.  There is precedence for this.