Will Israel attack Iran’s oil production? – Richard Mills

2024.04.14

Iran’s exports of crude oil grew by roughly 50% last year to a five-year high of 2.99 million barrels of oil daily.

The International Energy Agency predicts a further rise of 160,000 barrels per day in 2024. The vast majority of Iranian oil is going to China. China buys Iranian oil with the Yuan at a $13 per barrel discount to Brent.

The Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security forecasts the supply-demand balance flipping from a shortfall of 110,000 barrels per day last year to a 600,000-barrel surplus in 2024. Oil is currently down 20% from last Septembers highs.

Will Israel attack Iranian oil production? And what would be the consequences?

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Commodities/Iran-s-oil-exports-reach-5-year-high-with-China-as-top-buyer

As a follow up post…

China buys 30% of its oil from sanctioned countries – Iran, Venezuela and Russia.

China’s smaller independent refiners, called “teapots”, have become Tehran’s top clients since first buying Iranian oil in late 2019. They replaced state-run refiners, which stopped dealing with Iran over concerns about falling afoul of U.S. sanctions.

Teapots absorb about 90% of Iran’s total oil exports, usually passed off as oil originating in Malaysia or the United Arab Emirates.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/irans-oil-trade-with-china-stalls-tehran-demands-higher-prices-2024-01-05/

Richard (Rick) Mills
aheadoftheherd.com
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