Richard (Rick) Mills
Page 1 of 2
As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information
In 1800, three percent of the world's population lived in urban areas. By 1900, roughly 14 percent of the world's population were urbanites and 12 cities had 1 million or more inhabitants.
In 1950, 30 percent - 746 million people - resided in urban centers and the number of cities with over 1 million people had grown to 83.
In 1975 three cities had populations of 10 million or more. In 1990, there were ten “mega-cities” with 10 million inhabitants or more, which were home to 153 million people or slightly less than seven per cent of the global urban population at that time. Megacities (minimum population of 10 mil to qualify) numbered 16 in 2000.
In 2014, there were 28 mega-cities worldwide, home to 453 million people or about 12 percent of the world’s urban dwellers. Of 2014’s 28 mega-cities, sixteen are located in Asia, four in Latin America, three each in Africa and Europe, and two in Northern America.
By 2014, 54% of the total global population or 3.7 billion people, resided in urban centers. This number is expected to grow to 5 billion by 2030 and double by 2050.
The UN’s DESA Population Division reported that between 2014 and 2050 the largest urban growth, @ 37 per cent, will take place in India, China and Nigeria. By 2050, India is projected to add 404 million urban dwellers, China 292 million and Nigeria 212 million.
China’s rural spending, in 2012, was 2.78 trillion yuan or US$447 billion - less than one-fifth of what urban households spent. Although spending five times more than their rural counterparts urbanites accounted for only 52% percent of China’s population in 2012.
The annual average per capita disposable income in rural China reached 10,489 yuan ($1,693) in 2014. In urban areas, the average per capita disposable income was 29,381 yuan.
India total disposable personal income, tradingeconomics.com
UN Population Division
Almost all urbanization by 2030 will occur in the developing world.
This is a very important development because global discretionary consumption has not only gotten a significant lift from urbanization but this lift is going to continue as hundreds of millions more emerging consumers are going to acquire the means to spend on more than basic necessities.
“The rise of China’s middle class will help lift consumption share in GDP to around 50% by 2030 from 36% in 2014″. ANZ greater China economists Li-Gang Liu and Louis Lam
“If India continues on its current high growth path, India's middle class will swell by more than ten times from its current size of 50 million to 583 million people, incomes will almost triple over the next two decades, and the country will become the world's fifth–largest consumer market by 2025.” McKinsey Global Institute
A rising income means more money in the household budget.
The first thing a newly prosperous middle class urbanite does is change his/her diet.
This change of diet among newly prosperous, urban populations in developing countries is the most important factor stoking the change in global food demand. The new middle class consumers forgo plant based calories in favor of adding more protein from meat and dairy products to their diets. This is called the Protein Ladder, where the ground floor, or basic diet, consists almost entirely of plant matter.
The Protein Ladder:
5.Grain fed beef
4.Grass fed beef
3.Milk, other dairy products
Step 1.Chicken and eggs
Ground Floor = Rice, beans and bread
In 1980, the world ate 133 million tonnes of meat and drank 342 million tonnes of milk.
By 2002, consumption had increased to 239 million tonnes of meat and 487 million tonnes of milk.